人为和自然来源对大气甲变异性的贡献
P Bousquet1, P Ciais, J B Miller
1Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL-LSCE, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, F-91191, France. philippe.bousquet@cea.fr
Nature
|September 29, 2006
概括
大气中的甲水平在20世纪90年代后稳定下来,这是由于减少了人为排放. 然而,最近人类引起的甲排放量增加现在被减少的湿地甲排放量所掩盖,这可能导致未来的增加.
科学领域:
- 大气化学 大气化学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 甲是一种强大的温室气体,自工业化前时代以来,大气中的度几乎翻了三倍.
- 大气中甲增长率受到地表排放和基激素破坏的影响.
- 自20世纪90年代以来,甲的增长率有所下降,影响了全球气温预测.
研究的目的:
- 从1984年到2003年,量化控制甲排放变化的过程.
- 了解大气甲增长率年间波动的驱动因素.
- 评估湿地,火灾和人为排放在甲预算变化中的作用.
主要方法:
- 利用大气运输和化学的反转模型.
- 分析了1984年至2003年间的甲排放变化.
- 以遥感和生物地球化学模型数据对上下估计进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 湿地排放是甲年间变化的主要驱动因素.
- 除了1997-1998年的厄尔尼诺现象外,火灾排放的作用很小.
- 人为排放量下降导致1990年代甲增长放缓,随后自1999年以来增加.
结论:
- 湿地和火灾排放的自上而下的估计与独立数据一致.
- 最近人为甲排放的增加目前被减少的湿地排放所抵消.
- 如果湿地排放反弹,未来大气甲的增加是可能的.
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