2003年入侵伊拉克后的死亡率:一个横截面的集群样本调查调查
Gilbert Burnham1, Riyadh Lafta, Shannon Doocy
1Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA. gburnham@jhsph.edu
Lancet (London, England)
|October 24, 2006
概括
据估计,伊拉克战争造成了654,965人过度死亡,暴力,主要是枪支,是主要原因. 死亡率在入侵后翻了一番,这表明死亡人数的持续升级.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 冲突研究 冲突研究
背景情况:
- 之前的估计显示,在2003年3月至2004年9月期间,伊拉克发生了近10万例过度死亡.
- 持续的冲突需要更新死亡率估计.
研究的目的:
- 为提供2003年入侵伊拉克后伊拉克过度死亡率的最新估计.
- 分析入侵后的死亡原因和死亡率趋势.
主要方法:
- 在2006年5月至7月期间,进行了一项全国性跨部门集群抽样死亡率调查.
- 从47个随机选择的集群中的1849个家庭收集了数据,包括12801个人.
主要成果:
- 据估计,入侵后的死亡率为每年每1000人中13.3人,而入侵前的死亡率为每1000人中5.5人.
- 据估计,到2006年7月,654,965多余的伊拉克人死亡 (2.5%的人口) 归因于战争.
- 其中,601,027人死于暴力,枪击是最常见的原因.
结论:
- 自2003年入侵伊拉克以来,伊拉克死亡人数不断上升.
- 虽然2006年归因于联军的死亡人数比例有所下降,但绝对数字每年都在增加.
- 枪击仍然是暴力死亡的主要原因,汽车炸弹袭击造成的死亡人数有所增加.
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