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在一个变暖的环境中,印度越来越多的极端降雨事件的趋势在增加
B N Goswami1, V Venugopal, D Sengupta
1Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Doctor Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune 411 008, India. goswami@tropmet.res.in
概括
印度季风降雨显示更多的极端雨事件和较少的温和事件,尽管稳定的季节平均值. 这一趋势表明,未来印度中部地区的暴雨风险将会增加.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 气象学 天气学
- 水文学的水文学
背景情况:
- 全球表面温度正在上升,为气候模式创造了一个复杂的背景.
- 印度季风降雨的长期稳定性一直是科学调查的主题.
- 了解季风动态对于该地区的水资源管理和防灾准备至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析过去一个世纪印度季风降雨的趋势.
- 调查极端和中等降雨事件的频率和规模的变化.
- 在印度中部预测未来的降雨模式和相关危险.
主要方法:
- 利用了从1951年到2000年的每日降雨数据集.
- 分析了极端和中等降雨事件频率和规模的趋势.
- 基于事件的降雨变化与季节平均降雨趋势的比较.
主要成果:
- 观察到印度中部极端降雨事件的频率和规模显著增加.
- 在同一时期,中度降雨事件的频率显著下降.
- 发现暴雨趋势的上升被中度降雨的减少所抵消,掩盖了季节平均值的显著变化.
结论:
- 印度季风降雨变得越来越极端,大雨事件的频率和强度增加.
- 预计未来印度中部地区的暴雨相关危险将会增加.
- 尽管季节平均值稳定,但降雨的基本分布正在转向更极端的事件.
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