作为地球科学中的一个整合概念,ENSO
Michael J McPhaden1, Stephen E Zebiak, Michael H Glantz
1NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, USA. michael.j.mcphaden@noaa.gov
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|December 16, 2006
概括
厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 是地球的主要气候驱动因素,起源于太平洋. 了解 ENSO 的理解
科学领域:
- * 地球科学 地球科学
- * 气候科学 气候科学
- * 海洋学 海洋学
- * 大气科学 大气科学
背景情况:
- * 厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 是全球气候变化的主要驱动因素.
- * ENSO事件以温暖的厄尔尼诺和寒冷的拉尼诺相为特征,源自热带太平洋海洋与大气相互作用.
- * ENSO的影响力超越热带,影响全球气候模式和社会经济体系.
研究的目的:
- *综合目前对ENSO动态,影响和可预测性的理解.
- *强调利用ENSO预测能力带来的社会效益.
- * 确定未解决的研究问题,这些问题对于推动气候科学和政策至关重要.
主要方法:
- * 由1997-1998年厄尔尼诺事件引发的最近研究的综述和综合.
- * 分析ENSO对地球系统的广泛影响.
- * 确定ENSO动态,预测和应用中的关键挑战.
主要成果:
- * ENSO显著影响全球气候,其影响力和可预测性越来越被认可.
- *在了解ENSO的原因和后果方面取得了重大进展.
- *利用ENSO可预测性为社会利益带来的潜力是巨大的.
结论:
- * 持续的研究对于解决复杂的ENSO动态,影响和预测挑战至关重要.
- * ENSO研究的进步有望跨越多个科学学科取得进展.
- *教育公众和政策制定者关于气候变化和ENSO是必不可少的.
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