关于北极海冰覆盖面正在缩小的前景
Mark C Serreze1, Marika M Holland, Julienne Stroeve
1Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, National Snow and Ice Data Center, Campus Box 449, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0449, USA. serreze@kryos.colorado.edu
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|March 17, 2007
概括
由于自然变化和温室气体排放,北极海冰面积在1979年至2006年间呈现负面趋势. 这种北极冰的流失可能会加快,影响全球气候模式.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 北极研究 北极研究
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 北极海冰面积在1979年至2006年期间的所有月份均呈现负线性趋势.
- 观察到的冰损失归因于冰-海洋-大气系统中的自然变化和温室气体的辐射强迫的增加.
- 气候模型显示了与观察到的趋势的定性一致性,支持人类因素的作用.
研究的目的:
- 从1979年到2006年,分析北极海冰面积的线性趋势.
- 调查自然变化和温室气体诱导的辐射强迫对北极冰层损失的联合影响.
- 评估快速过渡到季节性无冰的北极地区的潜力及其更广泛的气候影响.
主要方法:
- 对1979年至2006年每月北极海冰面积数据的线性趋势的分析.
- 将观察到的趋势与来自气候模型的模拟进行比较.
- 评估结合的冰-海洋-大气系统动态.
主要成果:
- 在研究期间的每个月都观察到北极海冰面积的持续负面趋势.
- 观察到的冰损失与自然气候变化和人为辐射强迫的结合一致.
- 气候模型质量地复制了观察到的趋势,尽管关于季节性无冰北极的时间,在模拟中存在显著的分散.
结论:
- 由于自然波动和温室气体度上升,北极海冰正在减少.
- 随着冰层变薄,快速过渡到季节性无冰的北极是可能的,这可能导致气候的重大变化.
- 北极冰的消失预计将影响北极的淡水系统,能源预算,并可能改变中度天气模式.
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