冰川在21世纪主导了海平面的平稳上升
Mark F Meier1, Mark B Dyurgerov, Ursula K Rick
1Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, UCB 450, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309-0450, USA. mark.meier@colorado.edu
概括
冰川和冰盖融化是海平面上升的主要驱动因素,对全球海洋变化做出了重大贡献. 海洋终结冰川的加速融化可能会导致到2100年海平面大幅上升.
科学领域:
- 冰川学的冰川学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 全球海平面上升的主要原因是海洋的冰流失,冰川和冰盖约占这一损失的60%.
- 较小的冰川和冰盖对海平面上升的贡献在过去十年里加速了.
研究的目的:
- 为了研究海洋终结冰川的加速融化.
- 评估这种加速融化的对未来海平面上升的潜在影响.
主要方法:
- 分析来自冰川和冰盖的冰损失.
- 考虑海洋终结冰川的动态不稳定性.
- 气候和质量平衡建模.
主要成果:
- 已经观察到海洋终结冰川的加速稀薄和退缩.
- 这种动态不稳定是增加冰损失的关键因素.
- 预计由于这种加速融化的海平面上升,到2100年可能达到0.1到0.25米.
结论:
- 冰川和冰盖的加速融化,特别是海洋终结者,是当前和未来海平面上升的关键因素.
- 冰川的动态不稳定性在当前的气候和质量平衡模型中被低估了.
- 迫切需要关注冰川融化动态,以准确预测海平面上升.
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