概括
自1978年以来,加利福尼亚正经历中度至大地震. 这种增加的地震性,与压力积累变化相关,使每年发生重大地震的概率提高到13%.
科学领域:
- * 地质物理学和地震学,专注于地震预测和加利福尼亚州的地震危险评估.
背景情况:
- *加利福尼亚州自1978-1979年以来,与前25年相比,中等到大地震的数量显著增加.
- * 历史上地震性增加的时期都在破坏性地震 (7级以上) 之前发生.
研究的目的:
- *分析加利福尼亚州近期地震性增加及其对未来地震发生的潜在影响.
- * 调查地震性模式与地压力积累之间的相关性.
- * 评估圣安德烈亚斯断层可能发生大地震的可能性.
主要方法:
- *对加利福尼亚州历史地震频率数据的分析.
- * 对地震应变积累模式的检查.
- *对圣安德烈亚斯断层断层的断层位移潜力的评估.
主要成果:
- * 应变积累模式的明显偏差与增加的地震性有关.
- *加利福尼亚州每年发生7级以上地震的概率现在为13%.
- *自1857年以来,加利福尼亚南部的圣安德烈亚斯断层已经积累了相当大的潜在流离失所.
结论:
- *最近地震性增加和变化的应变模式表明加利福尼亚州的地震风险增加.
- * 由于积累的应力,圣安德烈亚斯断层存在大大地震 (震级大于7.5) 的巨大潜力.
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