概括
一个经验模型显示,自1945年以来,太阳总辐射量已经上升,在1980年左右达到顶峰. 这种太阳辐射的增加可能对全球变暖的影响很小,尽管模型预测.
科学领域:
- 太阳物理 太阳物理
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 经验建模的实证建模
背景情况:
- 总太阳辐射量 (TSI) 的变化是由太阳磁活动驱动的.
- 了解长期的 TSI 变化对于气候研究至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个实证模型的TSI变化的1874-1988年.
- 评估太阳磁活动对 TSI 的影响.
- 评估 TSI 变更对全球变暖的贡献.
主要方法:
- 基于光球磁活动数据 (1874-1988) 开发了一种经验模型.
- 根据卫星射线计观测 (1980-1988) 验证了该模型.
- 将模型输出纳入能源平衡气候模型.
主要成果:
- 经验模型准确地代表了所观察到的 TSI 变化.
- 自大约1945年以来,TSI已经呈现出稳定的增长.
- 1980年左右发生了一次显著的 TSI 峰值,另一个峰值预计在太阳能周期22年.
结论:
- 自1945年以来模拟的TSI上升不太可能成为显著全球变暖的主要驱动因素.
- 当前的气候模型可能会低估气候对太阳辐射变化的敏感性,如果它们将大量的变暖归因于这种太阳趋势.
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