概括
由于二氧化碳 (CO2) 增加而导致的表面变暖是气候模型预测的,但在北极60度尚未观察到.海洋热惯性或冷却因素可能会推迟检测,可能直到2000年.
科学领域:
- 气候科学气候科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 由于二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放量增加,全球气温正在上升.
- 气候模型预测在北方60度可检测到的表面变暖.
- 在北极60度观察到的温度变化尚未与预测相匹配.
研究的目的:
- 调查60度北极的年间温度变化.
- 确定预测的表面变暖是否目前可以检测到.
- 确定模型预测与观测之间的差异的潜在原因.
主要方法:
- 分析60度北方观测到的年间温度数据.
- 将观察到的数据与来自三维气候模型的预测进行比较.
- 考虑影响温度变化的因素,例如海洋热惯性和补偿冷却.
主要成果:
- 由于二氧化碳增加而预测的表面变暖在北极60度还无法检测到.
- 海洋热惯性可能会将全球变暖的探测延迟十多年.
- 补偿冷却因素也可能掩盖预测的变暖.
结论:
- 由于模型不确定性和海洋热惯性,对二氧化碳引起的变暖的检测可能会被推迟到2000年.
- 未来的探测工作应该同时检查多个气候变量,以尽量减少未被识别的补偿冷却带来的模糊性.
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