相关实验视频
概括
水利项目的分析往往忽略了灾害风险,如水故障和地震. 包括这些剩余风险至关重要,因为潜在的损害可能与项目收益相竞争,特别是在高风险的城市项目中.
科学领域:
- 环境工程环境工程
- 风险评估 风险评估 风险评估
- 水资源管理水资源的管理.
背景情况:
- 对水利项目的成本效益分析通常不包括低概率,高后果的灾害风险.
- 历史数据表明,水故障不是罕见的事件.
- 随着水深的增加,水库诱导的地震性概率会升级.
研究的目的:
- 强调将剩余风险纳入水项目效益成本分析的重要性.
- 强调灾难风险是项目特定的,需要个别估计.
- 为了证明未经评估的灾害风险的潜在财务影响.
主要方法:
- 对大故障,水库造成的地震和山体滑坡的历史事件分析.
- 对影响灾害概率的风险因素的定性评估.
- 对潜在损害成本与项目收益的比较分析.
主要成果:
- 水失效和水库引发的地震在水利项目中构成重大,往往未经定量化的风险.
- 水库引起的地震的概率与水库深度直接相关.
- 高风险项目的预期损害,特别是在城市环境中,可能是相当大的,可能会抵消项目收益.
结论:
- 效益成本分析必须整合潜在灾害的剩余风险,以准确评估水项目.
- 由于潜在危险的变化性质,对特定项目的风险评估至关重要.
- 如果不考虑这些风险,可能会导致低估真正的项目成本和高估净收益.
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