概括
全球气候变暖导致的微量气体的增加可能会导致植被发生显著的变化. 北美东部可能会在500年内经历前所未有的生态系统变化,影响自然和林业系统.
科学领域:
- 古气候学 古气候学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 大气中微量气体度的上升预计将使全球平均温度增加1.5至4.5摄氏度.
- 过去的植被变化为理解潜在的未来变化提供了基线.
研究的目的:
- 预测自然植被的平衡分布,以应对工业化前大气二氧化碳水平翻倍.
- 为了比较预测的植被变化与过去的气候驱动的变化.
主要方法:
- 使用的气候花粉反应表面.
- 应用了三种气候模型模拟,用于加倍CO2的情景.
- 分析了200至500年的植被分布变化.
主要成果:
- 预计北美东部的植被变化可能会超过过去7,000-10,000年的变化.
- 变化的幅度与最快的脱冰时期 (1,0003,000年) 相当.
- 植物范围和丰度最大值可能在200-500年内移动500-1000公里.
结论:
- 在预测的气候情景下,前所未有的植被变化极有可能发生.
- 预计将对林业和自然生态系统产生重大影响.
- 预测未来植被变化的精确时间和模式仍然具有挑战性.
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