概括
季节性气候预报显示,解决复杂的社会问题能力有限,例如埃塞俄比亚2000年的粮食危机. 政策制定者和科学家对于气候预测应用需要现实的期望.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 社会影响社会影响
- 粮食安全 粮食安全
背景情况:
- 冷战后的科学投资越来越需要证明社会效益.
- 季节性到跨年气候预测是证明这些好处的关键领域.
- 2000年埃塞俄比亚粮食危机是评估预测效用的一个案例研究.
研究的目的:
- 审查季节性气候预测科学的现状.
- 评估气候预报在应对2000年埃塞俄比亚粮食危机中的作用.
- 培养对气候预测应用的现实期望.
主要方法:
- 关于季节性气候预报的科学文献的综述.
- 与气候数据相关的2000年埃塞俄比亚粮食危机的分析.
- 评估气候预测在复杂的社会问题解决中的局限性.
主要成果:
- 审查表明,季节性气候预报存在重大局限性.
- 2000年埃塞俄比亚的粮食危机受到季节性气候变化以外的因素的影响.
- 当前的气候预测模型无法充分预测或减轻危机.
结论:
- 必须现实地评估气候预测对社会的好处.
- 政策制定者和科学家需要更清楚地了解气候预测的用途和局限性.
- 解决复杂社会问题的有效解决方案需要超越气候预测的综合方法.
相关概念视频
What is Climate?
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
Global Climate Change
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
Responses to Heat and Cold Stress
Every organism has an optimum temperature range within which healthy growth and physiological functioning can occur. At the ends of this range, there will be a minimum and maximum temperature that interrupt biological processes.
What is Weather?
Overview
Responses to Drought and Flooding
Water plays a significant role in the life cycle of plants. However, insufficient or excess of water can be detrimental and pose a serious threat to plants.
Adaptations that Reduce Water Loss
Though evaporation from plant leaves drives transpiration, it also results in loss of water. Because water is critical for photosynthetic reactions and other cellular processes, evolutionary pressures on plants in different environments have driven the acquisition of adaptations that reduce water loss.

