概括
未来的计算机将在尺寸和成本上缩小,超越,以潜在的生物设计. 这种技术进化承诺个性化的产品和每个人的信息获取.
科学领域:
- 计算机科学 计算机科学
- 材料科学 材料科学 材料科学
- 生物技术是生物技术.
背景情况:
- 当前的半导体技术面临着指数增长的局限性.
- 对当前趋势的推断会导致不切实际的小型化和成本.
- 追求更小,更快,更便宜的计算是一个持续的技术驱动力.
研究的目的:
- 概述计算机和信息系统的100年技术场景.
- 探索超越当前基于的技术的潜在范式转变.
- 预测先进信息系统对社会的影响.
主要方法:
- 基于场景的技术趋势预测.
- 分析当前计算范式中的局限性.
- 预测未来的计算架构和通信方法.
主要成果:
- 计算机将继续缩小,但很可能会放弃,转而采用新的技术,可能是生物技术 (基于DNA).
- 未来的系统将优先考虑信息检索而不是存储,以低价格实现大规模定制.
- 光波通信将扩大,需要用户友好的软件和强大的电子信息系统.
结论:
- 技术进步将导致高度个性化的产品和民主化的信息获取.
- 电子信息系统将重塑教育机构,将其专注于知识创造.
- 未来有望扩大信息和表达的权利,以及对信息滥用的保护.
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Published on: December 16, 2010
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