遥远的海面温度变化对热带气旋潜在强度的影响
Gabriel A Vecchi1, Brian J Soden
1Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey 08542, USA. Gabriel.A.Vecchi@noaa.gov
Nature
|December 14, 2007
概括
全球变暖全球变暖.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 热带气象学 热带气象学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 热带气旋活动对全球变暖的反应受到辩论.
- 温暖的海面温度被认为有利于旋风的发展,但大气热力学也发挥着作用.
- 热带气旋潜在强度是衡量上限强度和发展可能性的指标.
研究的目的:
- 探索海面温度变化与热带气旋潜在强度之间的关系.
- 研究区域变暖模式如何影响潜在强度.
- 使用观测数据重建潜在强度的历史变化.
主要方法:
- 利用气候模型和观测重建.
- 分析了海面温度和热带气旋潜在强度的变化.
- 研究了全球变暖的区域结构及其与潜在强度的相关性.
主要成果:
- 当地海面温度变化不足以表征潜在的强度变化.
- 长期的潜在强度变化与区域变暖模式相关.
- 大西洋潜力强度在20世纪中叶达到顶峰,而不是最近,尽管海面温度高.
结论:
- 区域变暖结构,而不仅仅是当地的海面温度,决定了潜在的强度变化.
- 温室气体引起的变暖可能对热带气旋的影响与自然气候变化不同.
- 热带气旋活动对气候变暖的反应是复杂的,并且取决于区域.
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