全球人口老龄化即将加速
Wolfgang Lutz1, Warren Sanderson, Sergei Scherbov
1World Population Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. lutz@iiasa.ac.at
Nature
|January 22, 2008
概括
全球人口老龄化正在加速,平均年龄大幅上升. 然而,当考虑到预期寿命的增加时,衰老的速度会大幅放缓,特别是在像北美这样的地区.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 老年学是指老年学的学科.
- 人口研究 人口研究
背景情况:
- 人口老龄化是一个全球现象,是由生育率下降和预期寿命增加所驱动的.
- 了解人口老龄化的速度和轨迹对于政策制定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 测量和比较全球和区域人口老龄化速度,使用传统和经长寿调整的指标.
- 预测人口老龄化指标及其相关不确定性的未来趋势.
主要方法:
- 利用概率人口预测来评估未来的人口变化.
- 计算了世界和13个主要地区的常规和长寿调整的平均年龄.
- 分析了人口老龄化速度的趋势及其区域差异.
主要成果:
- 全球平均年龄预计将大幅增加,但调整后的平均年龄在考虑长寿增长时会出现较慢的增长.
- 人口老龄化模式存在显著的区域差异,北美显示出独特的趋势.
- 人口老龄化的速度预计将在未来几十年增加,然后在大多数地区在本世纪中叶之前放缓.
结论:
- 人口老龄化是整个21世纪持续的全球趋势.
- 根据预期寿命的变化进行调整,可以更精细地了解人口老龄化动态.
- 该研究强调了在评估未来的人口变化及其影响时考虑长寿增加的重要性.
相关概念视频
Population Growth
29.6K
Population size is dynamic, increasing with birth rates and immigration, and decreasing with death rates and emigration. In ideal conditions with unlimited resources, populations can increase exponentially, which plots as a J-shaped growth rate curve of population size against time. This type of curve is characteristic of newly-introduced invasive species, or populations that have suffered catastrophic declines and are rebounding.
29.6K
Current Trends in Nursing I
5.7K
Current trends in nursing include:
5.7K
The Effect of Aging on Tissues
4.2K
Several body functions deteriorate with age. The external signs of aging are easily identifiable. For example, the skin becomes dry, less elastic, and thins out, forming wrinkles. The skin of the face begins to appear looser due to a decrease in the levels of elastic and collagen fibers in the connective tissue. Additionally, melanin production in the hair follicle decreases with age, resulting in gray hair. Moreover, the senses of sight and hearing decline, so glasses and hearing aids may...
4.2K
Drug Dosing: Geriatric Patients
368
Elderly individuals encompass a diverse population with varying degrees of age-related physiological changes. Defining the elderly presents challenges, as the geriatric population is often arbitrarily categorized as individuals older than 65. However, many individuals in this group lead active and healthy lives, with an increasing number surpassing 85 years and falling into the older elderly category. Physiological changes associated with aging impact performance capacity and homeostatic...
368
Pharmacodynamics in Geriatric Patients: Effects of Age
339
Age-related pharmacokinetic changes are extensively documented, but understanding age-related pharmacodynamic alterations is relatively limited. This knowledge gap can be partly attributed to the complexity of developing appropriate measures of drug responses compared to bioanalytical methods for determining drug concentrations.Most information regarding age-related differences in human pharmacodynamics originates from cross-sectional studies. However, these studies assume that observed mean...
339
Aging
1.1K
Aging is a complex biological phenomenon influenced by various processes that affect cellular and systemic functions. Several prominent theories attempt to explain its mechanisms, highlighting cellular limitations, oxidative damage, and hormonal changes as central factors in aging.
Cellular Clock Theory
The cellular clock theory posits that the human lifespan is closely tied to the finite capacity of cells to divide, a phenomenon governed by telomeres, which are protective caps at the ends of...
Cellular Clock Theory
The cellular clock theory posits that the human lifespan is closely tied to the finite capacity of cells to divide, a phenomenon governed by telomeres, which are protective caps at the ends of...
1.1K


