海面变暖对最近大西洋风活动增加的重大贡献
1Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, Department of Space and Climate Physics, University College London, Holmbury St Mary, Dorking, Surrey RH5 6NT, UK. mas@mssl.ucl.ac.uk
Nature
|February 1, 2008
概括
大西洋海面温度上升与风活动增加有关. 海洋表面温度上升0.5°C与风频率和强度增加40%相关.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 气象学 天气学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 自1995年以来,大西洋风活动显著增加.
- 海洋表面温度上升 (SST) 在这种增长中的确切作用尚未完全理解.
研究的目的:
- 量化大西洋海面温度对风活动的贡献.
- 评估SSTs与热带北大西洋,加勒比海和墨西哥湾的风频率之间的关系.
主要方法:
- 使用当地的SST和大气风场开发了一个统计模型.
- 分析了1965年至2005年的风数据.
- 通过消除风场的影响来隔离SST的影响.
主要成果:
- 统计模型复制了风频率和活动变异的很大一部分.
- 八月至九月的SST增加0.5°C与大约40%的风活动有关.
- 当地海面变暖约占1996-2005年风活动增加的40%.
结论:
- 海面温度是大西洋风活动增加的关键驱动因素.
- 观察到的关系为评估气候模型对未来风活动的预测提供了一个基准.
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