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Design and Construction of an Urban Runoff Research Facility
Published on: August 8, 2014
在美国西部的水文环境中,人类造成的变化
Tim P Barnett1, David W Pierce, Hugo G Hidalgo
1Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA. tbarnett-ul@ucsd.edu
概括
人类活动显著改变了美国西部的水循环,影响了河流流量,温度和积雪. 这些由人类影响驱动的气候变化趋势,预示着该地区未来的供水危机.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 美国西部在20世纪下半叶经历了重大的水文循环变化.
- 这个干旱的地区支持大量和不断增长的人口,使其易受供水波动的影响.
研究的目的:
- 开展一个区域,多变量气候变化检测和归因研究.
- 量化人类对美国西部观测到的水文趋势的影响.
- 评估气候变化对该干旱地区水资源的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用了高分辨率的水文模型.
- 将全球气候模型的数据强制使用模型.
- 分析了从1950年到1999年的河流流量,冬季空气温度和积雪趋势.
- 进行敏感性分析以确保结果的可靠性.
主要成果:
- 河流流量,冬季空气温度和积雪的气候相关趋势中,多达60%是人类活动造成的.
- 1950年至1999年间观察到的变化显示了人类引起的重大影响.
- 结果在不同研究变异和方法中被发现是稳健的.
结论:
- 人类引起的气候变化是美国西部水文变化的主要驱动因素.
- 这些发现与之前的研究一致,表明即将发生的供水危机.
- 需要紧急关注水资源管理和气候变化缓解.
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