优先考虑2030年粮食安全的气候变化适应需求
David B Lobell1, Marshall B Burke, Claudia Tebaldi
1Food Security and Environment Program, Woods Institute for the Environment and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA. dlobell@stanford.edu
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|February 2, 2008
概括
适应气候变化的投资可能会忽视某些作物和地区. 南亚和南非面临着对主食作物的重大风险,需要有针对性的适应战略来确保粮食安全.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 粮食安全分析 粮食安全分析
背景情况:
- 适应气候变化的投资往往会造成区域和特定作物的差异.
- 了解这些差异对于有效的全球粮食安全战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在气候变化下的12个粮食不安全地区确定作物适应优先事项.
- 用先进的建模技术分析关键作物的气候风险.
主要方法:
- 利用2030年20个一般循环模型的统计作物模型和气候预测.
- 评估了12个粮食不安全地区的气候风险,重点关注脆弱的作物.
主要成果:
- 南亚和南非被确定为高风险地区,多种必需作物没有适应.
- 在不同作物中存在气候影响预测的重大不确定性,影响了适应计划.
结论:
- 南亚和南非需要采取紧急,有针对性的适应措施,以减轻对粮食安全的负面影响.
- 投资策略必须考虑作物特定的不确定性和机构的风险承受能力,以有效地优先考虑适应努力.
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