在撒哈拉以南非洲的麻疹的动态
Matthew J Ferrari1, Rebecca F Grais, Nita Bharti
1Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802, USA. mferrari@psu.edu
Nature
|February 8, 2008
概括
尼日尔的麻疹疫情是不可预测的,由强烈的季节性传播驱动,导致频繁的失踪和罕见的大流行. 即使疫苗接种增加,不稳定的动态也会使重大疫情恶化.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 麻疹在沙赫尔等高出生率地区仍然是一个重大威胁,尽管全球接种疫苗的努力.
- 工业化国家的麻疹动态预测定期的年度流行病,与高出生率国家的观察结果形成鲜明对比.
研究的目的:
- 调查尼日尔,特别是尼阿米的麻疹流行病的插曲性.
- 在季节性强迫环境中模拟驱动麻疹爆发变异性的潜在机制.
主要方法:
- 使用包含季节性因素的确定性模型分析麻疹动态.
- 应用超人口模型来模拟不同疫苗覆盖范围的影响.
主要成果:
- 尼日尔的麻疹流行病表现出高度插曲的模式,偏离预期的年度周期.
- 传输的强烈季节性驱动混乱的决定性动态中的高幅度流行病,导致频繁的随机衰退.
- 疫苗覆盖率增加,即使低于消除值,也可能加剧在高度季节性情况下的疫情变化.
结论:
- 尼日尔麻疹的不可预测性和偶发性是由强大的季节性与决定性的混乱动态相互作用来解释的.
- 控制策略必须解决易感个体的积累问题,并为大型,不规则的疫情做好准备.
- 超人口建模突出了疫苗接种策略如何与季节性相互作用,以影响疫情的频率和严重程度.
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