从Sentinel数据估计学校关闭对流感传播的影响
Simon Cauchemez1, Alain-Jacques Valleron, Pierre-Yves Boëlle
1MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK.
Nature
|April 11, 2008
概括
学校假期显著减少了儿童流感的传播,防止了季节性病例. 在大流行期间长期关闭学校可能会降低整体病例和感染率的峰值,尽管有效性取决于持续的低接触率.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 病毒学 病毒学
背景情况:
- 高致病性H5N1流感的威胁需要对大流行做好准备.
- 药物干预,如疫苗和抗病毒药物,对于大规模储存来说是昂贵的.
- 非药物干预 (NPI),如学校关闭,被认为是具有成本效益的替代方案.
研究的目的:
- 量化学校在流感传播动态中的作用.
- 预测学校关闭的影响,作为一种流行病控制策略.
- 在流感流行期间为公共卫生政策提供有关NPI的信息.
主要方法:
- 法国监测数据和假期时间表的分析.
- 在儿童和成年人中量化流感传播率.
- 模拟学校关闭对流行病传播的影响.
主要成果:
- 假期减少了20-29%的流感传播给儿童,并预防了16-18%的季节性病例.
- 疫情期间学校关闭可能会使累积病例减少13-17%和峰值攻击率降低39-45%.
- 学校关闭的有效性取决于保持儿童之间的接触率降低.
结论:
- 学校在流感传播中发挥着重要作用,尤其是在儿童中.
- 关闭学校是减轻大流行影响的可行的NPI,特别是当制药选择有限时.
- 关于维持减少接触率的进一步研究对于优化NPI有效性至关重要.
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