由于气溶污染减少,亚马逊地区干旱风险增加
Peter M Cox1, Phil P Harris, Chris Huntingford
1School of Engineering, Computing and Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK. p.m.cox@exeter.ac.uk
Nature
|May 10, 2008
概括
亚马逊雨林气候变化令人担忧. 亚马逊西部降雨量减少与大西洋海面温度梯度相关,表明未来的干旱风险.
科学领域:
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 热带气象学 热带气象学
- 生态系统动态生态系统动态
背景情况:
- 亚马逊热带雨林对全球气候调节至关重要,影响大气循环和水循环.
- 它储存了大量的碳,并为全球初级生产率做出了贡献.
- 由于预测的干旱趋势,森林对森林砍伐和全球变暖的抵御力是一个主要问题.
研究的目的:
- 在2005年干旱的背景下分析亚马逊地区的气候预测.
- 研究亚马逊雨量与大西洋海面温度 (SST) 之间的关系.
- 评估气溶对气候模型准确性和未来预测的影响.
主要方法:
- 分析气候预测,使用包含气溶效应的GCM.
- 亚马逊西部干旱季降雨与赤道大西洋北至南的SST梯度的相关性.
- 基于观察到的关系的21世纪气候场景的模拟.
主要成果:
- 在亚马逊西部干旱季降雨量减少和大西洋南南方SST梯度之间发现了强烈的相关性.
- 气候模型准确地重现了历史降雨-SST关系和气溶影响被包括在内时的多十年变化.
- 未来的气候模拟预测,干旱情况的频率将增加,类似于2005年的情况.
结论:
- 大西洋南南 SST梯度是亚马逊干旱季降雨变化的关键驱动因素.
- 预计减少北半球气溶污染将加剧亚马逊地区的干旱状况.
- 这些变化对亚马逊生态系统,全球碳循环和初级生产率净产生了重大影响.
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