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观察到的全球平均表面温度在20世纪中叶出现了很大的不连续性
David W J Thompson1, John J Kennedy, John M Wallace
1Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado 80523, USA. davet@atmos.colostate.edu
Nature
|May 30, 2008
概括
1945年气候数据的不连续性,以前被忽视,可能解释20世纪中叶的冷却趋势. 这种突然的温度下降很可能是由于未经纠正的海面温度偏差,而不是内部气候变化.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 地球科学 地球科学 地球科学
- 古气候学 古气候学
背景情况:
- 全球表面温度从1910年至1940年显示升温,从1940年至1970年略有降温,随后显著升温.
- 20世纪中叶的冷却被归因于诸如大气与海洋相互作用和硫酸盐气溶排放等因素.
研究的目的:
- 为了识别和分析1945年左右气候记录中以前被忽视的不连续性.
- 为了调查20世纪中叶气候数据中观察到的温度急剧下降的原因.
主要方法:
- 全球平均温度时间序列的分析,包括过数据以隔离变化.
- 对海面温度记录进行检查,以寻找潜在的仪器偏差.
主要成果:
- 一个突出的不连续性,一个突然的温度下降~0.3°C,在1945年被确定.
- 在过了内部气候变化后,这种不连续性更加明显.
- 1945年的温度下降是由于海面温度数据中未经纠正的仪器偏差造成的.
结论:
- 1945年的不连续性是20世纪中叶冷却的一个关键特征,可能是由数据偏差引起的.
- 预计纠正这种偏差将改变对20世纪中叶温度变化的理解.
- 长达一个世纪的全球平均气温趋势估计不太可能被这种纠正显著改变.
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