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最强的热带气旋的强度越来越大
James B Elsner1, James P Kossin, Thomas H Jagger
1Department of Geography, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida 32306, USA. jelsner@fsu.edu
Nature
|September 5, 2008
概括
热带气旋正在加剧,在全球范围内观察到更强大的风暴. 这一趋势与海洋温度上升有关,为旋风发展提供了更多的能量.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 大西洋热带气旋的强度正在增加,与海洋温度上升有关.
- 全球热带气旋强度趋势不太清楚,因为数据有限,重点是平均强度.
研究的目的:
- 为了分析热带气旋强度的趋势,使用风速的上方量子.
- 通过使用同质的卫星数据和检查极端事件来克服先前研究的局限性.
主要方法:
- 检查了每旋风最大风速的上方方方位 (70个百分位以上) 的趋势.
- 利用来自卫星记录的同质数据来估计一生最大风速.
- 分析了不同海洋盆地的趋势,重点关注最强的旋风 (第99百分位数).
主要成果:
- 在70百分比以上的风速量度中发现了显著的上升趋势.
- 最强的旋风显示的趋势高达0.3 +/- 0.09 m/s/yr.
- 每个盆地都观察到最强风暴的风速上升趋势,北大西洋显示出最大的增长.
结论:
- 海面温度的上升在质量上与热带气旋强化可用的能量增加相一致.
- 这项研究提供了证据,证明全球最强的热带气旋的强度趋势正在增加.
- 这些发现突显了气候变化对极端天气事件的影响.
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