冰川对21世纪海平面上升的贡献的动力学约束
W T Pfeffer1, J T Harper, S O'Neel
1Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA. pfeffer@tintin.colorado.edu
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|September 6, 2008
概括
到2100年,海平面上升超过2米是物理不可能的. 可信的加快条件表明海平面上升约为0.8米,为未来的海平面预测提供了基线.
科学领域:
- 冰川学的冰川学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 海平面上升研究研究
背景情况:
- 气候模型和过去的条件表明,到2100年,海平面可能会多度上升.
- 以前的预测并没有完全限制极端海平面上升情景的冰川条件.
研究的目的:
- 评估到2100年多米海平面上升的冰川学可行性.
- 为海平面上升预测建立物理可信的场景.
主要方法:
- 对显著的冰盖质量损失所需的冰川学条件的分析.
- 基于冰流动力学物理限制的受约束场景的开发.
- 在不同的加速速度下,模拟的海平面上升的比较.
主要成果:
- 根据目前的理解,到2100年海平面上升超过2米被认为是物理不可持续的.
- 到2100年,海平面上升2米只能在所有变量极端快速加速的情况下实现.
- 更合理的,加快的条件表明,到2100年,海平面总上升约为0.8米.
结论:
- 到2100年海平面上升的上限显著低于一些拟议的情景.
- 这些发现为海平面上升提供了"最可能"的范围,这对于完善气候模型至关重要.
- 未来的海平面预测应纳入详细的冰流动力学和现实的冰川学约束.
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