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吸烟和使用固体燃料对中国的COPD,肺癌和结核病的影响:基于时间的多重风险因素,建模研究
Hsien-Ho Lin1, Megan Murray, Ted Cohen
1Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Lancet (London, England)
|October 7, 2008
概括
在中国减少吸烟和固体燃料的使用,可以显著降低慢性阻塞性肺病 (COPD) 和肺癌的死亡率. 这些干预措施在控制结核病发病率方面也起着至关重要的作用.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 环境健康 环境健康
背景情况:
- 慢性阻塞性肺病 (COPD),肺癌和结核病是中国主要的死亡原因.
- 吸烟和家庭使用固体燃料的高发病率有助于这些疾病负担.
研究的目的:
- 预测风险因素趋势对中国的COPD,肺癌和结核病的影响.
- 以吸烟和固体燃料使用场景为基础,模拟未来的疾病死亡率和发病率.
主要方法:
- 利用代表性数据来估计吸烟和固体燃料使用的过去趋势和未来情景.
- 纳入了元分析和中国研究的病因效应.
- 考虑风险因素积累和疾病流行程度依赖性的模拟疾病结果.
主要成果:
- 预计到2033年,如果目前的趋势持续下去,将有6500万COPD死亡和1800万肺癌死亡.
- 吸烟和使用固体燃料导致的死亡:COPD为82%,肺癌为75%.
- 停产可以避免数百万人的死亡,并显著减少结核病发病率.
结论:
- 通过减少吸烟和固体燃料使用,可以大幅减少COPD和肺癌负担.
- 这些干预措施对于有效控制中国的结核病至关重要.
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