表面温度年度周期相位的变化
A R Stine1, P Huybers, I Y Fung
1Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA. zan@atmos.berkeley.edu
Nature
|January 23, 2009
概括
地球的年度温度周期正在变早,变幅. 这些气候变化是异常的,目前的气候模型无法完全复制,这表明需要进一步研究.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
背景情况:
- 地球表面温度的年周期表现出显著的幅度,与冰川-冰川间周期相比较.
- 由于对自然变化的理解不足,每年温度周期的相位和幅度的观察趋势缺乏明确的解释.
研究的目的:
- 调查年度地表温度周期相位和振幅观察到的变化的原因和意义.
- 评估年度温度周期的自然变化,并将其与最近的趋势进行比较.
主要方法:
- 对1954年至2007年表面温度数据的分析.
- 将观察到的趋势与自然变化和气候模型模拟进行比较.
- 研究温度周期变化与北方环状模式 (NAM) 之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 在1954年至2007年期间,外热带地区的年度地表温度周期的阶段在1954年至2007年之间大幅提前1.7天.
- 这种观察到的相位变化与自然变化范围相比是异常的.
- 在研究期间,还发现了年度周期幅度的显著变化.
- 观察到的转移部分与北方环状模式有关,但相位转移超过了NAM预测.
结论:
- 观察到的每年温度周期的相位和振幅的变化是显著的,并且偏离了自然的变化.
- 当前的气候模型无法准确地复制这些观察到的变化,特别是季节性相位变化.
- 需要进一步的研究来了解这些异常气候变化的驱动因素和影响.
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