自1957年国际地球物理年以来,南极冰盖表面的变暖
Eric J Steig1, David P Schneider, Scott D Rutherford
1Department of Earth and Space Sciences and Quaternary Research Center, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195, USA. steig@ess.washington.edu
Nature
|January 23, 2009
概括
南极的气温变化表明西南极洲的显著变暖,不仅仅是半岛. 这种变暖趋势与区域大气转移有关,而不仅仅是强化的西风.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 南极研究南极研究
背景情况:
- 南极气温变化评估历史上强调半岛变暖和大陆冷却.
- 这种模式通常归因于平流层臭氧变化影响环极西风.
- 之前的观测时间和空间覆盖范围有限,造成了不完整的画面.
研究的目的:
- 用更广泛的观测范围重新评估南极温度趋势.
- 为了研究南极洲的空间范围和气候变暖的程度.
- 为了确定观察到的南极温度变化的驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 对近几十年来广泛的南极观测数据的分析.
- 使用一般循环模型来模拟气候模式.
- 将模型输出与观察数据进行比较,以验证发现.
主要成果:
- 显著的变暖延伸到西南极洲的大部分地区,比以前记录的区域更大.
- 在过去的50年中,西南极的变暖速度超过了每十年0.1°C,特别是在冬季和春季.
- 虽然东南极洲出现秋季降温,但整个大陆的近地表平均温度趋势是积极的.
结论:
- 在西南极洲观察到的变暖比以前理解的要广泛得多.
- 气候变暖不能仅仅归因于西部风的强度增加.
- 区域大气循环变化,海面温度和海冰动态是解释西南极加剧变暖的关键因素.
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