西南极洲的海平面指纹崩
Jerry X Mitrovica1, Natalya Gomez, Peter U Clark
1Department of Physics, University of Toronto, 60 St. George Street, Toronto, ON M5S 1A7, Canada.
概括
西南极冰盖崩造成的海平面上升可能高于预期. 新的研究表明,美国沿海地区的海平面上升可能比先前预测的高出两到三倍.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 冰川学的冰川学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 西南极冰盖崩后,目前的海平面上升预测假定融水分布均.
- 1977年的一项研究表明,北太平洋和美国海岸线的局部海平面上升,这一发现在很大程度上被忽视了.
- 现有的模型可能低估了冰盖融水对区域海平面的影响.
研究的目的:
- 用先进的理论模型重新评估西南极冰盖崩后海平面上升预测.
- 量化美国沿海岸线海平面上升超出均分布的潜在过度海平面上升.
- 将新的预测与以前的估计进行比较,包括1977年的一项研究.
主要方法:
- 应用最先进的海平面变化理论框架.
- 模拟从一个崩的西南极冰盖融化水的空间分布.
- 对预测的海平面异常相对于eustatic上升的分析.
主要成果:
- 预计海平面上升超过eustatic值的海平面上升将明显高于此前的估计.
- 对于美国沿海地区,预计海平面的过度上升将比先前的预测高出两到三倍.
- 这些发现突出了海平面对冰盖融化的反应的重大区域差异.
结论:
- 海平面上升预测需要考虑融水分布不均,特别是在脆弱的海岸线.
- 西南极冰盖崩对美国海平面的影响可能被当前的模型大大低估了.
- 对区域海平面动态的进一步研究对于准确的气候变化适应规划至关重要.
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