温室气体排放目标,以限制全球变暖2摄氏度
Malte Meinshausen1, Nicolai Meinshausen, William Hare
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg, 14412 Potsdam, Germany. malte.meinshausen@pik-potsdam.de
Nature
|May 2, 2009
概括
全球变暖减缓努力的目标是将变暖限制在2°C. 本研究量化了2000-2050年温室气体 (GHG) 排放预算,为气候变化政策提供了关键数据.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
背景情况:
- 超过100个国家的目标是全球变暖的极限为2°C,相对于工业化前的水平.
- 与这种变暖极限相关的温室气体 (GHG) 排放是不确定的,因为碳循环和气候反应的变化.
研究的目的:
- 提供2000-2050年温室气体排放预算的概率分析.
- 量化排放路径,以限制二十一世纪的变暖低于2°C.
主要方法:
- 利用已发表的气候系统属性的分布.
- 整合了观察约束,用于全面的概率分析.
- 分析了累积的CO2排放和2050年的排放水平作为指标.
主要成果:
- 到2050年将累积的CO2排放量限制在1000亿二氧化碳,将使全球气候变暖超过2°C的可能性达到25%.
- 到2050年达到1440亿二氧化碳的极限相当于超过2°C升温的概率为50%.
- 到2050年实现全球温室气体排放量减半 (G8公报) 的可能性在12-45%之间超过2°C.
结论:
- 累积排放和2050年排放水平是限制全球变暖到2°C的可靠指标.
- 仍然有大量的化石燃料储备,在2°C的限制范围内可以排放.
- 迫切需要减少排放,因为2020年的排放水平会显著影响超过2°C的概率.
更多相关视频
相关概念视频
The Carbon Cycle
Carbon is the basis of all organic matter on Earth, and is recycled through the ecosystem in two primary processes: one in which carbon is exchanged among living organisms, and one in which carbon is cycled over long periods of time through fossilized organic remains, weathering of rocks, and volcanic activity. Human activities, including increased agricultural practices and the burning of fossil fuels, has greatly affected the balance of the natural carbon cycle.
Global Climate Change
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
Radiation: Applications
The average temperature of Earth is the subject of much current discussion. Earth is in radiative contact with both the Sun and dark space; it receives almost all its energy from the radiation of the Sun and reflects some of it into outer space. Dark space is very cold, about 3 K, so Earth radiates energy into it. For instance, heat transfer occurs from soil and grasses, the rate of which can be so rapid that frost can occur on clear summer evenings, even in warm latitudes.
The average...
The average...
Gas Solubility
Gas solubility in liquids forms liquid-gas solutions, such as soft drinks, where carbon dioxide is dissolved in water, and the ocean, where the solubility of oxygen and carbon dioxide supports marine life. The ability of oceans to dissolve gases impacts weather conditions in the troposphere.However, gas-liquid interactions vary. For instance, hydrogen chloride gas is highly soluble in water, while oxygen's solubility is much lower. Because these solutions are non-ideal, Raoult’s law, which...
Carbon-dioxide Fixation
Carbon dioxide fixation in prokaryotes enables the assimilation of inorganic carbon into organic molecules, supporting biosynthetic pathways, sustaining ecosystems, and contributing to the global carbon cycle. It also has industrial applications in carbon capture and bioproduct synthesis. Autotrophic organisms rely on this process to utilize CO₂ as a carbon source in diverse environments.The Calvin CycleThe Calvin cycle is the most widespread carbon fixation mechanism, primarily used by...
Microbes and Climate Change
Microorganisms are pivotal agents in Earth's biogeochemical cycles, significantly influencing climate dynamics through their metabolic activities. These microbes modulate the levels of key greenhouse gases by both contributing to and helping mitigate climate change.Microbial Contributions to Greenhouse Gas EmissionsRising global temperatures accelerate microbial metabolism, which, in turn, speeds up the decomposition of organic matter. This process releases carbon dioxide (CO₂) through...


