由累积碳排放引起的变暖接近万亿
Myles R Allen1, David J Frame, Chris Huntingford
1Department of Physics, University of Oxford, OX1 3PU, UK. myles.allen@physics.ox.ac.uk
Nature
|May 2, 2009
概括
限制累积的二氧化碳排放提供了一个更强大的气候变化缓解战略,而不是专注于排放率或度. 总共一万亿的碳排放可能导致2°C的峰值变暖.
科学领域:
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
- 气候建模 气候建模
背景情况:
- 全球气候变化缓解依赖于温度预测,但平衡温度和碳循环反应的不确定性使目标设定复杂化.
- 准确的预测对于避免危险的全球变暖水平和为气候政策提供信息至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 模拟各种二氧化碳排放途径的温度反应.
- 在科学不确定性下评估气候政策目标的稳定性.
- 为了确定二氧化碳累积排放和峰值变暖之间的关系.
主要方法:
- 使用简单的气候-碳循环模型组合模拟.
- 由复杂模型的观察数据和预测所限制的模型.
- 在广泛的二氧化碳排放途径中分析温度反应.
主要成果:
- 累积二氧化碳排放的峰值变暖比稳定场景的变暖更受限制.
- 累积排放和峰值变暖之间的关系与排放路径时间或峰值速度无关.
- 一万亿的碳排放 (3.67万亿CO2) 可能会导致2°C的峰值变暖 (1.3-3.9°C 5-95% CI).
结论:
- 基于限制累积二氧化碳排放的政策目标对不确定性更有稳定性.
- 累积排放目标比减缓气候变化的排放率或度目标更可靠.
- 了解碳预算对于制定有效的气候政策至关重要.
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