全球变暖与累积碳排放的比例
H Damon Matthews1, Nathan P Gillett, Peter A Stott
1Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Concordia University, 1455 de Maisonneuve Blvd W., Montreal, Quebec, H3G 1M8, Canada. dmatthew@alcor.concordia.ca
Nature
|June 12, 2009
概括
碳气候应对 (CCR) 将全球气温上升与碳排放联系起来,独立于二氧化碳水平. 该指标有助于估计气候缓解政策的累积排放导致的变暖.
科学领域:
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气化学 大气化学
背景情况:
- 传统的气候敏感度指标 (ECS,TCR) 无法完全捕捉地球系统对二氧化碳排放的反应,因为忽视了碳循环反.
- 之前的气候碳模型实验表明了二氧化碳排放,度和温度反应之间的关键关系.
- 这些关系表明,有可能有一个简化的指标,将气候和碳循环过程整合在一起.
研究的目的:
- 从气候-碳模型实验中概括发现.
- 引入和定义碳气候反应 (CCR) 作为每单位累积碳排放的温度变化指标.
- 评估CCR与大气二氧化碳度及其变化速度的独立性,并估计其气候政策应用的观测约束.
主要方法:
- 已建立的气候碳模型结果的概括.
- 碳气候反应 (CCR) 的定义是温度变化与累积碳排放的比率.
- 使用观测约束来估计CCR,并与气候碳模型模拟进行比较.
主要成果:
- 碳气候反应 (CCR) 大致独立于大气二氧化碳度及其在十年到百年时间尺度上的变化速度.
- 根据观测的限制,CCR估计在每万亿排放的碳 (Tt C) 均在1.0-2.1°C之间 (第5-95百分位数).
- 来自模型的CCR值与观察估计一致,尽管土地利用和气溶强迫的不确定性允许更高的值.
结论:
- 通过聚合气候和碳循环反,CCR提供了一个可靠的衡量标准来比较气候碳模型.
- CCR简化了直接从累积碳排放中推断二氧化碳引起的全球平均温度变化.
- 这个指标对气候变化缓解和政策有价值,它将不确定性整合到一个单一的,可直接使用的数量中.
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