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太平洋变暖变化模式对北大西洋热带气旋的影响
Hye-Mi Kim1, Peter J Webster, Judith A Curry
1School of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Georgia Institute of Technology, 311 Ferst Drive, Atlanta, GA 30332, USA.
概括
两个太平洋变暖模式显著改变了北大西洋风活动. 中部太平洋地区的变暖增加了旋风频率和登陆风险,提供了更好的季节性风预测.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 热带气象学 热带气象学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 众所周知,热带太平洋变暖事件,如厄尔尼诺,会影响全球天气模式.
- 不同太平洋变暖模式对北大西洋热带气旋活动的具体影响需要进一步阐明.
研究的目的:
- 研究和区分东太平洋变暖 (EPW) 和中太平洋变暖 (CPW) 对北大西洋热带气旋的影响.
- 了解驱动这些差异性影响的潜在机制,重点关注大气远程连接和垂直风切割.
主要方法:
- 对历史热带太平洋温度异常的分析.
- 热带气旋频率,轨迹和EPW和CPW事件期间登陆数据的比较.
- 检查大气远程连接模式和垂直风剪变化.
主要成果:
- 与太平洋中部变暖 (CPW) 事件相比,东太平洋变暖 (EPW) 事件对北大西洋热带气旋的影响不同.
- CPW事件与北大西洋热带气旋频率的增加以及墨西哥湾和中美洲沿线降落的可能性更高有关.
- 来自太平洋的差异性远程连接模式调节垂直风切,解释了观察到的旋风活动差异.
结论:
- 太平洋最大海面温度异常的位置显著影响北大西洋风季节.
- 与东太平洋变暖相比,中太平洋变暖为季节性热带气旋活动提供了更大的可预测性.
- 了解这些独特的变暖模式对于改善季节性风预报至关重要.
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