到2020年,心胸外科医生很可能会短缺
Atul Grover1, Karyn Gorman, Timothy M Dall
1Director, Government Relations, Association of American Medical Colleges, 2450 N St NW, Washington, DC 20037, USA. agrover@aamc.org
Circulation
|July 29, 2009
概括
由于人口老龄化和外科医生减少,美国到2025年将面临心胸外科医生短缺,这可能会影响患者护理质量. 需求将增加46%,而供应将下降21%.
科学领域:
- 心血管外科心血管外科
- 医疗卫生工作人员分析分析
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
背景情况:
- 心血管疾病的负担在美国正在上升,与人口老龄化相吻合.
- 活跃心胸外科医生的数量在20年来首次下降.
- 冠状动脉疾病的治疗在技术不确定性中不断发展.
研究的目的:
- 评估目前和未来对心胸外科医生的要求.
- 预测外科医生的供需,考虑到人口结构的变化和程序的变化.
- 评估冠状动脉旁路移植 (CABG) 率下降的影响.
主要方法:
- 人口,医生办公室,医院和医生数据集的分析.
- 在各种培训场景下,模拟建模用于预测未来的心胸外科医生供应.
- 需求建模,包括患者人口统计和替代使用率,包括消除开放式再血管化.
主要成果:
- 由于人口增长和老龄化,到2025年,对心胸外科医生的需求可能会增加46%.
- 预计到2025年,由于退休和新进入者减少,活跃外科医生供应将减少21%.
- 预计心胸外科医生将出现严重的短缺,即使消除了CABG手术.
结论:
- 美国在未来十年内将面临心胸外科医生的严重短缺.
- 这种短缺可能会损害护理质量.
- 潜在的后果包括增加非董事会认证医生的角色和延迟患者获得护理.
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