大西洋风和过去1500年的气候
Michael E Mann1, Jonathan D Woodruff, Jeffrey P Donnelly
1Department of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802, USA. mann@psu.edu
Nature
|August 14, 2009
概括
大西洋风活动最近一直很高,但一项为期1500年的研究表明,中世纪的风暴水平类似或更高. 这表明最近的增长可能并非前所未有的.
科学领域:
- 古气候学 古气候学
- 热带气象学 热带气象学
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
背景情况:
- 最近的大西洋热带气旋活动已经达到异常水平,引发了关于历史数据可靠性的争论.
- 了解长期趋势对于评估当前风暴活动的重要性至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 将最近的大西洋热带气旋活动置于跨越1500年的更长期历史背景中.
- 为了比较两种独立的方法来重建过去的风活动.
主要方法:
- 利用了风登陆的区域沉积物证据.
- 采用了由代理气候重建驱动的大西洋热带气旋活动的统计模型.
主要成果:
- 这两种方法都始终显示大西洋热带气旋活动在中世纪 (公元1000年左右) 的峰值.
- 中世纪的风暴水平与最近的活动相美或超过,在估计不确定性范围内.
- 统计模型将中世纪的峰值与类似拉尼娜的条件和更温暖的热带大西洋温度联系起来.
结论:
- 最近大西洋风活动的增加在1500年的时间尺度上看时可能并非前所未有的.
- 中世纪的气候条件,以拉尼娜状况和温暖的海洋为特征,促进了高热带气旋活动.
- 长期的气候变化显著影响大西洋风模式.
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