态度和行动:论和国际恐怖主义的发生
Alan B Krueger1, Jitka Malecková
1Department of Economics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA. akrueger@princeton.edu
概括
公众对外国领导人的不满预示着国际恐怖主义. 当中东和北非国家的公民不赞成其他国家时.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 国际关系 国际关系
- 安全研究 安全研究
背景情况:
- 国际恐怖主义的根本原因和预测因素仍然不完全理解.
- 现有的研究往往忽视了公众论作为跨国冲突潜在驱动力的作用.
研究的目的:
- 调查一个国家的论与来自该国的国际恐怖主义事件之间的因果关系.
- 专门研究对外国领导人的负面公众情绪对恐怖袭击的影响.
主要方法:
- 对公众论数据的分析,以中东和北非国家的领导层对九个世界大国的不赞同来衡量.
- 利用计数模型分析143个国家对,控制相关变量和原产国固定效应.
主要成果:
- 在公众对外国领导人的不满和国际恐怖主义事件的频率之间发现了统计学上显著的正相关性.
- 较高的公众不赞成程度与不赞成国家的公民所犯下的恐怖主义事件的发生率更高相对应.
结论:
- 公众论,特别是对外国领导人的负面情绪,是国际恐怖主义的重要预测因素.
- 调查结果表明,解决公众情绪可能是反恐战略的关键组成部分.
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