厄尔尼诺在一个不断变化的气候环境中
Sang-Wook Yeh1, Jong-Seong Kug, Boris Dewitte
1Climate Change and Coastal Disaster Research Department, Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute, 426-744, Ansan, Korea. swyeh@kordi.re.kr
Nature
|September 26, 2009
概括
全球变暖可能会增加太平洋中部厄尔尼诺现象的频率. 这一转变,来自东太平洋厄尔尼诺现象,预计将随着热带在赤道太平洋平坦化而发生.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
背景情况:
- 厄尔尼诺现象是全球气候变化的关键驱动因素.
- 近几十年来,太平洋中部厄尔尼诺 (CP-El Niño) 现象的增加,与太平洋东部厄尔尼诺 (EP-El Niño) 现象不同.
研究的目的:
- 在全球变暖情景下调查CP-El Niño与EP-El Niño事件的比例的预测变化.
- 了解气候变化如何改变厄尔尼诺的特征.
主要方法:
- 结合模型相互比较项目的第三阶段 (CMIP3) 多模型数据的分析.
- 基于历史数据计算厄尔尼诺指数.
- 预测CP-埃尔尼诺和EP-埃尔尼诺频率的比较.
主要成果:
- 人为气候变化预计将增加相对于EP-El Niño的CP-El Niño的频率.
- 选定的气候模型表明,CP-厄尔尼诺/EP-厄尔尼诺发生率可能增加五倍.
- 这种转变与赤道太平洋热带的预计平坦化有关.
结论:
- 未来的气候变化可能会使太平洋中部厄尔尼诺现象比太平洋东部厄尔尼诺现象更容易发生.
- 了解这些变化对于预测未来的气候影响和社会经济后果至关重要.
相关概念视频
Migration
Migration is long-range, seasonal movement from one region or habitat to another. This common strategy, carried out by many different organisms around the world, is an adaptive response that typically corresponds to changes in an organism’s environment, like resource availability or climate. Migrations can involve huge groups of thousands of animals as well as single individuals traveling alone and can range from thousands of kilometers to just a few hundred meters.
The Carbon Cycle
Carbon is the basis of all organic matter on Earth, and is recycled through the ecosystem in two primary processes: one in which carbon is exchanged among living organisms, and one in which carbon is cycled over long periods of time through fossilized organic remains, weathering of rocks, and volcanic activity. Human activities, including increased agricultural practices and the burning of fossil fuels, has greatly affected the balance of the natural carbon cycle.
What is Climate?
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
Global Climate Change
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
Responses to Drought and Flooding
Water plays a significant role in the life cycle of plants. However, insufficient or excess of water can be detrimental and pose a serious threat to plants.
Microbes and Climate Change
Microorganisms are pivotal agents in Earth's biogeochemical cycles, significantly influencing climate dynamics through their metabolic activities. These microbes modulate the levels of key greenhouse gases by both contributing to and helping mitigate climate change.Microbial Contributions to Greenhouse Gas EmissionsRising global temperatures accelerate microbial metabolism, which, in turn, speeds up the decomposition of organic matter. This process releases carbon dioxide (CO₂) through...


