医生劳动力估计和供应预测的比较
Douglas O Staiger1, David I Auerbach, Peter I Buerhaus
1Department of Economics, 301 Rockefeller Hall, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH 03755, USA. doug.staiger@dartmouth.edu
JAMA
|October 22, 2009
概括
美国人口普查局当前人口调查 (CPS) 数据显示,医生的劳动力比以前估计的年轻,年长的医生活跃的人数更少. 预测表明,与美国医学协会主档数据相比,未来的医生供应量较小.
科学领域:
- 健康劳动力研究 卫生劳动力研究
- 医学经济学 医学经济学
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
背景情况:
- 美国的医生供应估计可能会被夸大,因为老年医生数量过多.
- 准确的医生劳动力数据对于医疗保健规划和政策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 用美国医学协会医生主档 (Masterfile) 数据与美国人口普查局当前人口调查 (CPS) 数据比较医生劳动力估计和供应预测.
- 识别医生劳动力人口统计数据中的差异,特别是年龄和性别.
主要方法:
- 根据年龄和性别对活跃医生 (每周工作时间≥20小时) 的回顾性队列分析.
- 从1979-2008年使用了Masterfile和CPS的年度数据.
- 雇佣了最近的劳动力趋势,以按年龄预测未来的医生供应量.
主要成果:
- 据CPS数据估计,每年活跃医生的数量比Masterfile少10%,主要是由于55岁以上的医生较少.
- CPS数据显示,更多的年轻医生 (年龄在25-34岁之间),随着时间的推移,差距越来越大.
- 使用CPS数据的未来预测 (2020年) 估计,与Masterfile预测相比,医生数量减少了100,000人,劳动力配置更年轻.
结论:
- 美国人口普查局当前人口调查 (CPS) 数据表明,活跃的医生劳动力比来自美国医学协会主档数据的估计要小和年轻.
- 差异主要是由于较少的老年医生保持活跃,更多的年轻医生进入劳动力市场.
- 未来的医生供应预测根据数据来源有很大差异,这影响了医疗保健劳动力计划.
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