大陆内长时间的余震序列以及对地震危险评估的影响
1Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois 60208, USA. seth@earth.northwestern.edu
Nature
|November 6, 2009
概括
在板内部的地震危险评估有缺陷. 最近的地震可能是古代的余震,挑战了关于地震活动和复发间隔的假设.
科学领域:
- 地质物理学 地质物理学
- 地震学 地震学
- 板块构造学是一种板块构造学.
背景情况:
- 板块构造学有效地预测了板块边界的地震.
- 然而,由于假设最小的变形,预测板内部的地震仍然具有挑战性.
- 目前的危险评估通常依赖于历史的地震性,假设它反映了正在进行的变形.
研究的目的:
- 为了调查板内部发生的地震的性质.
- 挑战这样的假设,即大陆内部的历史地震性反映了正在进行的变形.
- 提出一种新的模型,以了解不同构造环境中的地震余震序列.
主要方法:
- 对板内部历史地震记录的分析.
- 开发一种模型,将余震序列长度与故障加载率相关联.
- 模型预测与观测数据的比较.
主要成果:
- 许多最近在板内部发生的地震被认为是大,古老的地震的潜在余震.
- 一个模型预测余震序列与故障加载率成反比例.
- 大陆的余震序列预计比板块边界的余震序列要长得多.
结论:
- 在大陆内部的稳定状态地震性假设可能是错误的.
- 当前的地震危险评估可能会在活跃地区高估风险,在其他地区低估风险.
- 了解余震持续时间对于准确的地震危险评估至关重要.
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