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更好地将气候强迫归因于排放
Drew T Shindell1, Greg Faluvegi, Dorothy M Koch
1NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, USA. drew.t.shindell@nasa.gov
概括
气候变化缓解战略必须考虑甲,臭氧和气溶如何相互作用. 甲排放对气候变暖的影响比以前认为的要大,需要更新气候政策.
科学领域:
- 大气化学和气候科学
- 气候变化缓解减缓 气候变化缓解减缓
- 辐射强迫评估 辐射强迫评估
背景情况:
- 多元气候变化缓解需要理解复杂的排放效应.
- 甲,臭氧和气溶通过大气化学相互连接.
- 单一的污染物排放可以影响多个大气物种.
研究的目的:
- 量化来自气溶和热层臭氧前体排放的大气组成变化和辐射强迫.
- 评估气体-气溶相互作用对不同排放的相对重要性的影响.
- 通过提供每单位排放的准确强制,为气候变化缓解政策提供信息.
主要方法:
- 使用了结合的成分气候模型.
- 计算大气组成的变化.
- 确定关键前体的历史辐射强迫和每单位排放的强迫.
主要成果:
- 气体-气溶相互作用显著改变各种排放的感知重要性.
- 甲排放的气候影响远远大于当前的贸易计划和协议所承认的.
- 当考虑气体-气溶相互作用时,每单位排放的强迫变化很大.
结论:
- 当前的气候变化缓解政策可能低估了甲排放的影响.
- 纳入气体-气溶相互作用对于准确的多国减缓政策评估至关重要.
- 为了减轻短命污染物的变暖,必须考虑这些相互作用.
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