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气候变化的速度
Scott R Loarie1, Philip B Duffy, Healy Hamilton
1Carnegie Institution for Science, Department of Global Ecology, Stanford, California 94305, USA. loarie@stanford.edu
Nature
|December 25, 2009
概括
物种的生存取决于跟上气候变化的步伐. 一个新的指数显示,全球平均温度变化速度为0.42公里/年,山区变化速度最慢,草原变化速度最快,影响保护区.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 全球气候变化正在导致物种范围的变化.
- 山地生态系统面临着独特的威胁,因为迁移路径有限.
- 物种跟踪气候变化的能力对于生存至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 引入一种用于测量地球表面温度变化速度的新型指数.
- 在未来的排放场景下预测全球温度变化的速度.
- 评估气候速度对保护区生物多样性保护的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种新的指数,用空间温度梯度 (°C km-1) 和多模组合预测量化温度变化速度 (km yr-1).
- 在A1B排放场景下计算了21世纪全球温度变化平均速度.
- 分析了各种生物体的温度变化速度,并评估了全球保护区内的气候的居住时间.
主要成果:
- 全球温度变化的平均速度预计为0.42公里/年-1.1.
- 山地生物体表现出最低的速度 (例如,热带针叶树林在0.08公里/年-1),而被洪水淹没的草原和红树林显示出最高的速度.
- 预计全球仅有8%的保护区将保持其气候超过100年,而小的保护区加剧了某些生物群的问题.
结论:
- 气候速度是物种生存的关键因素,与气候持久性一起.
- 管理策略必须考虑气候速度,山地景观提供潜在的避难所.
- 扩大保护区,减少排放,促进物种迁移对于减少气候变化造成的生物多样性丧失至关重要.
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