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Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data
Published on: October 23, 2020
达尔富尔冲突中的死亡率模式
Olivier Degomme1, Debarati Guha-Sapir
1Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Institute of Health and Society, Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium. olivier.degomme@uclouvain.be
Lancet (London, England)
|January 30, 2010
概括
达尔富尔冲突估计造成298,271人死亡,疾病成为流离失所人口死亡的主要原因. 人道主义援助显著影响死亡率.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 冲突研究 冲突研究
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 自2004年以来,达尔富尔冲突的死亡率估计经常忽视了冲突动态,如流离失所和各种死亡原因.
- 之前的研究缺乏对死亡率的动态分析,考虑到随时间变化的因素.
研究的目的:
- 分析随着时间的推移,达尔富尔原始和特定原因死亡率的变化.
- 评估人口流离失所对死亡率的影响.
- 估计达尔富尔冲突所造成的总死亡人数.
主要方法:
- 利用在线数据库的回顾性死亡调查.
- 采用了Quasi-Poisson模型来分析死亡率,考虑到调查地点,时间段和流离失所者的比例.
- 计算了预测的死亡率,并将其应用于联合国人口数据,以估计过度死亡.
主要成果:
- 从2004年初到2008年底,死亡率显著下降,人道主义援助减少期间死亡率更高.
- 与腹相关的死亡相比,与暴力相关的死亡的死亡率减少更为明显.
- 流离失所与腹相关的死亡人数增加相关,但暴力死亡人数减少,估计有298,271例过度死亡 (95%CI 178,258461,520).
结论:
- 虽然暴力是2004年死亡的主要原因,但自2005年以来,疾病成为主要原因,特别是影响流离失所人口.
- 人道主义援助的减少与死亡率的恶化有关,这种情况在2006年中期至2007年中期之间出现.
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