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对全球碳循环对气候敏感性的集体重建约束
David C Frank1, Jan Esper, Christoph C Raible
1Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland. david.frank@wsl.ch
Nature
|January 30, 2010
概括
全球变暖通过碳循环反来放大自己. 这项研究量化了碳循环.
科学领域:
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
- 碳循环研究 碳循环研究
背景情况:
- 全球碳循环对温度变化的反应产生了积极的反循环,放大了人为变暖.
- 这种气候反 (gamma) 的规模的不确定性导致全球变暖预测中的显著差异.
- 以前对马的估计有所不同,这影响了我们对未来气候变化的理解.
研究的目的:
- 量化全球碳循环 () 的气候敏感性及其反强度.
- 通过提供强大的限制,减少全球变暖预测中的不确定性.
- 为未来的合碳气候模型模拟建立一个基准.
主要方法:
- 将概率方法与一组基于代理的温度重建相结合.
- 使用来自三个冰核的工业化前大气二氧化碳 (CO2) 数据.
- 采用超过20万个成员的集体来进行强大的量化和对马的概率分配.
主要成果:
- 玛的中位数量为每百万体积分中的7.7个部分 (p.p.m.v.). 二氧化碳每摄氏度升温,可能范围为1.721.4 p.p.m.v. 每°C的二氧化碳.
- 敏感性实验证实,工业化前的土地利用变化对这些估计的影响很小.
- 量化的马值明显低于最近的经验估计,这表明目前正在进行的全球变暖的潜在放大大约减少了80%.
结论:
- 这项研究为政策相关的时间表提供了对马的强有力的限制.
- 这些发现为未来气候模型模拟提供了一个基准,提高了全球变暖预测的准确性.
- 结果表明,碳循环反的潜在扩大未来变暖的可能性低于一些经验研究先前提出的.
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