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下一代气候变化研究和评估场景
Richard H Moss1, Jae A Edmonds, Kathy A Hibbard
1Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA. rhm@pnl.gov
Nature
|February 12, 2010
概括
科学家们开发了一种新的场景过程,以更好地了解气候变化的影响和人类的反应. 这种方法旨在改善物理,生物和社会科学的整合,以实现更有效的气候变化缓解和适应战略.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化科学已经进步,澄清了地球的变化和对人类/自然影响的反应.
- 社会和环境的影响取决于地球系统的反应和人类的适应策略 (技术,政策,生活方式).
- 未来气候强迫因素的不确定性需要情景开发,以探索应对选择的后果.
研究的目的:
- 引入一种新的过程,用于开发可信的气候变化场景.
- 解决现有情景中的局限性,这些情景不充分探讨缓解和适应.
- 促进科学家之间的跨学科信息交流.
主要方法:
- 开发一个新的场景创建过程.
- 专注于整合物理,生物和社会科学.
- 在气候变化研究中探索具有挑战性的问题.
主要成果:
- 描述了一个用于场景生成的新框架.
- 该过程旨在改善对气候变化后果的调查.
- 它促进了对气候变化研究采取更综合的方法.
结论:
- 新的场景过程为了解气候变化提供了更全面的方法.
- 预计它将加强对减缓和适应战略的探索.
- 这种跨学科的方法对于应对复杂的全球气候挑战至关重要.
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