气候变化和全球疟疾衰退
Peter W Gething1, David L Smith, Anand P Patil
1Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Tinbergen Building, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK. peter.gething@zoo.ox.ac.uk
Nature
|May 21, 2010
概括
过去一个世纪,全球疟疾的传播范围和流行程度显著下降,这与气候变化导致的疟疾增加的说法相反. 有效的控制措施对疟疾的影响比预计的气候影响更大.
科学领域:
- 全球流行病学全球流行病学
- 气候变化对传染病的影响.
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
背景情况:
- 建议气候变化增加疟疾的传播和死亡率.
- 历史地图显示了Plasmodium falciparum疟疾分布的变化.
- 了解疟疾流行病学对于全球卫生政策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化自1900年以来疟疾地理范围的收缩情况.
- 为了测量过去一个世纪疟疾流行病的全球减少.
- 将历史变化与预计的气候变化影响进行比较,并控制措施的有效性.
主要方法:
- 历史和当代疟疾分布图的比较分析.
- 自大约1900年以来疟疾流行病变化的量化.
- 观察到的趋势与预测的气候变化影响和公共卫生干预影响的比较.
主要成果:
- 自1900年以来,全球疟疾的范围和流行病率大幅下降.
- 观察到的下降与气温上升导致全球疟疾增加的说法相矛盾.
- 预计的气候变化影响是比历史下降和可实现的控制措施效应小的数量级.
结论:
- 气候变化增加了目前疟疾负担的说法在很大程度上不受观察到的全球趋势的支持.
- 有效的公共卫生干预措施远远超过了气候变化对疟疾的影响.
- 未来的疟疾预测必须考虑历史背景和控制措施的强大影响.
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