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海平面上升及其对沿海地区的影响
Robert J Nicholls1, Anny Cazenave
1School of Civil Engineering and the Environment and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK. r.j.nicholls@soton.ac.uk
概括
全球海平面因全球变暖而上升,本世纪将加速上升. 关于冰盖贡献和区域变化的不确定性仍然存在,这会影响适应战略.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 冰川学的冰川学
背景情况:
- 全球海平面在整个20世纪都明显上升.
- 预计在21世纪及以后,由于全球变暖,海平面上升的持续加速预计将持续.
- 关于未来海平面上升的确切幅度,仍然存在重大不确定性.
研究的目的:
- 突出影响未来海平面上升预测的关键不确定性.
- 为了强调海平面上升的潜在影响和适应的不确定性.
- 强调需要进一步评估和考虑适应战略的必要性.
主要方法:
- 20世纪海平面数据的分析.
- 对21世纪海平面上升的预测进行审查.
- 确定关键的贡献因素和不确定性 (冰盖,区域变化,沉降).
主要成果:
- 海平面上升是一个与全球变暖相关的加速趋势.
- 主要的不确定性包括格陵兰岛和西南极冰盖的行为.
- 区域海平面变化和沉降等非气候因素在当地具有重要意义.
- 适应措施的有效性和应用仍然不确定.
结论:
- 未来海平面上升的幅度是不确定的,主要是由于冰盖动态和区域变化.
- 诸如土地沉降等非气候因素可能会加剧当地相对海平面变化.
- 海平面上升的潜在影响需要对适应战略及其成功进行严格的评估.
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