气候变化对中国水资源和农业的影响
Shilong Piao1, Philippe Ciais, Yao Huang
1Department of Ecology, College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China. slpiao@pku.edu.cn
Nature
|September 3, 2010
概括
气候变化对中国的影响仍然不清楚,尽管气候变暖趋势. 需要进一步的研究来评估对水资源,农业和粮食安全的影响.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 农业科学 农业科学
背景情况:
- 中国是人口最多的国家,也是主要的温室气体排放国,因气候变化而面临潜在的经济脆弱性.
- 虽然全球研究往往侧重于中国的气候影响,但气候变化对中国本身的影响不太清楚.
- 中国有限的耕地 (占世界总面积的7%) 支持大量人口 (占世界总面积的22%) 增加了对气候变化对粮食安全的影响的担忧.
研究的目的:
- 评估当前对气候变化对中国水资源和农业的影响的理解.
- 评估中国在持续的气候变化中为人口提供粮食的能力所带来的影响.
- 确定未来研究的关键领域,以提高评估准确性.
主要方法:
- 审查现有关于中国气候变化及其影响的研究.
- 对中国内观察到的变暖趋势的分析.
- 识别区域气候建模和作物反应理解中的知识差距.
主要成果:
- 在中国观察到的变暖趋势显而易见.
- 目前的科学理解不足以清楚地评估人为气候变化对中国水资源和农业的影响.
- 根据目前的数据,无法就中国在气候变化中的粮食安全做出明确的结论.
结论:
- 改进的区域气候模拟,特别是降水,对于未来的评估至关重要.
- 需要更好地了解作物对气候变化,疾病,害虫和大气成分的反应.
- 进一步的研究对于准确确定气候变化对中国粮食安全的未来影响至关重要.
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