来自现有能源基础设施的未来二氧化碳排放和气候变化
Steven J Davis1, Ken Caldeira, H Damon Matthews
1Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305, USA. sjdavis@carnegie.stanford.edu
概括
现有的化石燃料基础设施使我们对未来的二氧化碳排放和全球变暖作出了重大承诺. 紧急开发替代方案对于避免最严重的气候变化影响至关重要.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 地质物理学 地质物理学
背景情况:
- 减缓气候变化需要克服政治,技术和地球物理系统的惯性.
- 现有基础设施对地球物理变暖的承诺是一个关键的,但往往没有量化的因素.
研究的目的:
- 量化对现有化石燃料燃烧装置未来二氧化碳排放和变暖的承诺.
- 估计这些承诺排放导致的潜在的全球变暖和大气二氧化碳度.
主要方法:
- 计算现有基础设施燃烧化石燃料所产生的累积未来二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放量.
- 估计与这些预计排放相关的平均全球变暖和大气二氧化碳度.
主要成果:
- 现有的基础设施使世界在2010年至2060年期间从化石燃料燃烧中排放496千亿二氧化碳 (282701 GtCO2).
- 这一承诺相当于工业化前水平平均升温1.3°C (1.11.4°C),二氧化碳度低于430 ppm.
结论:
- 气候变化排放的最具威胁性的来源尚未被构建.
- 预计二氧化碳排放基础设施将大幅扩建,除非快速开发和实施替代能源.
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