余震密度与距离的衰减并不表明由动态应力引发的触发
Keith Richards-Dinger1, Ross S Stein, Shinji Toda
1Department of Earth Sciences, University of California, Riverside, California 92521, USA. keithrd@ucr.edu
Nature
|October 1, 2010
概括
讨论了余震的静态和动态压力触发. 这项研究驳斥了动态触发,表明地震风险预测需要重新评估. 余震距离衰变不仅仅是由动态应力解释的.
科学领域:
- 地质物理学 地质物理学
- 地震学 地震学
- 地震科学 地震科学 地震科学
背景情况:
- 了解地震相互作用和地震危险预测依赖于区分余震的静态和动态压力触发因素.
- 之前的研究表明,动态触发解释了余震距离衰减,基于电力定律衰减分析.
研究的目的:
- 提出和测试地震余震距离衰变的替代解释.
- 重新评估动态应力是余震距离衰变的唯一驱动因素的假设.
主要方法:
- 分析不同距离的主震之前和之后的地震衰变模式.
- 检查余震的时间衰变 (奥莫里定律).
- 调查余震相对于地震波到达的时间.
主要成果:
- 震荡发生前5分钟和发生后5分钟的地震衰减在300米以上是不可分辨的,这表明没有动态触发效应.
- 奥莫里时衰变,是余震的特征,在距离主震10公里之外是不存在的.
- 观察到的距离衰变发生在地震波到达之前,违反因果关系并挑战动态触发.
结论:
- 余震所观察到的距离衰减不仅仅是通过动态触发来解释的.
- 对于余震分布和触发机制的替代解释是必要的.
- 重新思考关于断层破裂和群体连续触发的假设对于准确的地震危险评估至关重要.
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