在低收入和中等收入国家扩大艾滋病毒/艾滋病计划的融资,2009-31年
Robert Hecht1, John Stover, Lori Bollinger
1Results for Development Institute, Washington, DC 20009, USA. rhecht@resultsfor
Lancet (London, England)
|October 12, 2010
概括
到2031年,全球艾滋病毒/艾滋病的资金需求从3970亿美元到722亿美元不等. 各国的资金能力将有所不同,低收入国家将继续依赖外部援助来应对艾滋病毒/艾滋病.
科学领域:
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 公共卫生经济学 公共卫生经济学
- 资源动员 资源动员
背景情况:
- 人类免疫缺陷病毒/获得免疫缺陷综合征 (HIV/AIDS) 流行病给全球健康和经济带来了重大挑战.
- 有效的资源动员和管理对于持续的艾滋病毒/艾滋病应对工作至关重要.
- 长期财务规划对于应对艾滋病毒/艾滋病流行病不断变化的需求至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 模拟发展中国家对艾滋病毒/艾滋病的长期资金需求.
- 分析各个发展中国家和国际捐助者的财政贡献.
- 根据不同的政策情景,预测未来的融资轨迹.
主要方法:
- 利用aids2031项目模型预测全球和特定国家的艾滋病毒/艾滋病资金需求.
- 根据政府和捐助方的政策选择,开发了多种不同成本的多种场景.
- 分析了15个代表性发展中国家的预防,治疗和缓解策略.
主要成果:
- 据估计,从2009年到2031年,全球艾滋病毒/艾滋病的资金需求在3970亿美元至72200亿美元之间.
- 根据收入水平和艾滋病毒/艾滋病负担,为发展中国家确定了不同的金融期货.
- 收入中等,艾滋病毒/艾滋病负担较低的国家可能会自筹资金,而收入低,负担较高的国家将需要持续的外部支持.
结论:
- 发展中国家在应对艾滋病毒/艾滋病方面将面临越来越多的财务责任.
- 对预防和治疗效率的战略投资可以使一些艾滋病毒流行率高的中等收入国家减少对外部资金的依赖.
- 持续的国际支持对高艾滋病毒/艾滋病负担的低收入国家至关重要.
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