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人口补偿和气候引起的范围转移的临界点
Daniel F Doak1, William F Morris
1Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming 82071, USA. ddoak@uwyo.edu
Nature
|October 22, 2010
概括
气候变暖正在导致物种的范围发生变化,但由于人口结构的变化,一些植物表现出弹性. 这种缓冲效应是暂时的,持续的变暖可能导致人口减少.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 植物生态学植物生态学
背景情况:
- 预计随着气候变暖,物种范围将向极点或更高的海拔地区转移.
- 观察到的范围转移往往是特异性的,一些物种不会转移或扩大范围,而不是收缩.
- 了解范围转移弹性对于预测物种对持续气候变化的脆弱性至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查北美原植物范围转移的基础的人口结构机制.
- 确定补偿性人口变化是否能缓冲南部人口对抗气候变暖.
- 为了评估这种缓冲效应在持续变暖的情况下的长期持久性.
主要方法:
- 在两个突拉植物物种的北方和南方种群中对人口统计率 (生存率,招募率,增长率) 的比较分析.
- 在范围广泛的种群中进行长期监测.
- 统计建模以将人口率与气候变量联系起来.
主要成果:
- 南方种群的生存率和招募率较低,但单个植物生长率较高,这表明了补偿性的人口反应.
- 由于这些补偿变化,南方人口的人口增长率目前并不低于北方人口.
- 在温和变暖中改善的人口比例在极端变暖年份下降,这表明性潜在的极限.
结论:
- 补偿性人口变化可以暂时缓冲植物种群免受气候变暖的影响,减缓范围的变化.
- 这种缓冲不太可能持续无限期,尤其是在持续或极端变暖的情况下.
- 对所有人口过程的长期,范围广泛的监测对于检测人口补偿和预测非线性范围转移至关重要.
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